Fresh internal polling in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District race signals Democrat Zach Dembo is ahead of Republican Ralph Alvarado.
The poll, done by Democratic-favoring GQR and released Friday by Dembo’s campaign, puts Dembo five percentage points ahead of Alvarado in the central Kentucky race—with 42% of potential voters going for Dembo versus 37% for Alvarado.
Around 11% of voters polled said they planned on supporting an independent or third-party candidate (there are multiple such candidates in the KY-06 race), while another 9% said they are still undecided with a month until the election.
Pollsters said third-party candidates like Pete Lynch from the Kentucky Party and independent Jay Bowman are providing “a destination for the growing number of disgruntled Republicans.”
When third-party voters were asked to pick just between Dembo and Alvarado, Dembo remained ahead—with 46% of voters to Alvarado’s 43%.
The poll—especially when voters are asked to decide between Dembo and Alvarado—falls within or close to its 4.9-point margin of error.
Independent, public polling in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional race has been limited, but both polling from Democrat-leaning groups and predictions from nonpartisan election forecasters have signaled the district may not be as safe for Republicans as it has traditionally been seen.
On paper, Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District is nearly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans—43.6% of voters versus 43.9%, according to September voter registration stats. (The remaining 12.5% of voters identify as some form of third-party.)
But the district, which covers Lexington and surrounding areas, has been seen as a safe seat for Republicans over the last several years. Once Rep. Andy Barr, the Republican currently holding the seat, opted to run for the US Senate, it began being seen as a potential seat for Democrats to flip during the 2026 midterm elections.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, based out of the University of Virginia, shifted their rating of the race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican” in late September after having previously marking it as a safe Republican seat. The Cook Political Report moved their rating of the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” in mid-July.
Dembo’s pollster noted “a combination of a toxic environment for the ruling party, a flawed Republican nominee and an appealing, centrist Democratic candidate” has helped shift the race.
As the race ratings slipped away from Republicans, Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District has become a hotbed for major outside political spending and TV ads as Republicans hope to hang onto the seat.
Trump’s PAC, No Going Back PAC, has spent nearly $1 million on TV ads backing Alvarado and attacking Dembo, according to FEC filings. Some of those ads have drawn criticism from Dembo’s campaign, who argued they used undisclosed AI-generated images of Dembo—a violation of state law.
Dembo, a former federal prosecutor, is running against Alvarado, a doctor and former state senator.
“This recent poll shows what we’ve known for a while: Central Kentucky families are fed up with a system they know is rigged against them,” Dembo said in a press release. “We’ve got more work to do with a month left until the election—and it’s all gas, no breaks.”
What to know about Kentucky’s 2026 elections
Election Day is Nov. 3, with no-excuse, in-person early voting running from Oct. 29 to Oct. 31.
Earlier in-person voting options, along with mail-in ballots, are also available for those unable to make it to the polls.
The deadline to register to vote is Oct. 5 at 4 p.m. local time. Anyone who will be at least 18 years old on or before Election Day can register to vote.
LEARN MORE: Check out Hellbender Newsroom’s 2026 Voter Hub
