The first public poll of Kentucky’s 2026 midterm election season dropped this week, giving a blueprint of where Kentucky voters’ heads are, less than two months before Election Day.
Polling funded and released by Democrat Charles Booker’s US Senate campaign Sept. 9 talked to 600 likely voters toward the end of August. Like with most political polls, percentages listed have a margin-of-error of four percentage points—so, the actual result could be four points higher or lower.
From the status of Kentucky’s US Senate race, to how Kentuckians are feeling about Trump, tariffs, the Iran War, and soon-to-be-former Sen. Mitch McConnell, here are four top takeaways from Booker’s polling.
Who is leading Kentucky’s US Senate race?
Booker’s own polling shows he’s down by nine percentage points to Republican opponent Rep. Andy Barr—getting the support of 40% of the poll respondents versus 49% for Barr.
But the campaign’s pollsters said that when they presented voters with information about each candidate—both good and bad, although they didn’t share specific examples—the race ended up in a 43-43% tie.
Kentucky hasn’t elected a Democratic US Senator in decades, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report still labels the race as a solidly Republican seat. But the polling gives Booker’s campaign hope.
“By working both hard and smart and with investments, this is a winnable race, plain and simple,” Kamau Marshall, Booker’s chief strategist, said in a press release. “As Kentuckians learn more about the choice before them, Charles Booker’s path to victory only grows stronger.”
Many voters still TBD
More than one-third of voters—35%—have “yet to fully make up their minds” about the race, pollsters said.
Respondents would move from supporting Booker, to Barr, to being undecided over the course of the poll, signalling the “moveable persuadable universe of KY swing voters,” per a press release.
Those undecided voters included a chunk of independent voters. More than 11% of all Kentucky voters are registered as independent, and even more consider themselves independent while still being a Democrat or Republican on paper. Kentucky has closed primaries, meaning many of those voters didn’t get a chance to weigh in on Kentucky’s US Senate race in the May primaries.
Trump is unpopular—even in Kentucky
Kentucky has routinely backed President Donald Trump—often by large margins—but Trump’s popularity appears to be waning.
Less than half of voters polled said they had a favorable view of Trump, and a majority of voters said they didn’t like some of his signature policies and decisions while in office.
Around 52% of voters said they disapproved of Trump’s tariff policies, and 56% disapproved of the Iran War, the poll found.
McConnell is even less popular than Trump
Between decades in Washington DC and a summer filled with rampant conspiracy theories and speculation as to his health and whereabouts, McConnell is incredibly unpopular with Kentuckians.
Only 13% of voters polled had a favorable opinion of the 84-year-old Republican.
Both Republicans and Democrats railed against McConnell during Kentucky’s primary elections, with Republicans hoping to gain favor with Trump and Democrats angling to deliver something different for Kentucky.
What to know about Kentucky’s 2026 elections
Kentucky voters will have a slate of races and issues on the ballot this fall, from the US Senate race, to picking new faces in Congress and Frankfort, to local races for mayors and school board members, even to a potential change to the state constitution.
Election Day is Nov. 3, with no-excuse, in-person early voting running from Oct. 29 to Oct. 31. (And voters with qualified excuses have even earlier in-person voting and mail-in absentee options.)
The deadline to register to vote in Kentucky’s 2026 midterm elections is 4 p.m. local time on Oct. 5. Anyone who will be at least 18 years old by Election Day is eligible to register.
What should Hellbender Newsroom cover in the weeks leading up to Kentucky’s 2026 midterm elections? What questions do you want candidates to answer? Fill out this survey or contact Kentucky Political Correspondent Olivia Krauth at oliviakrauth@couriernewsroom.com.
